Asteroid 2024 YR4 Won’t Hit Earth, but Moon Impact Still Possible
.webp)
Asteroid 2024 YR4 made waves in late 2024 when early
calculations suggested a small chance of it colliding with Earth in December
2032. Those early concerns have since been dismissed. Thanks to refined
tracking and additional observations—including data from NASA and the Webb
telescope—astronomers now confirm that Earth is completely safe.
However, the updated trajectory models have shifted
attention to the Moon, where a minor—but measurable—impact probability
remains.
Latest Estimates Show Low but Notable Moon Impact Probability
According to the European Space Agency (ESA), the
asteroid currently carries about a 4% chance of striking the Moon in
2032—meaning a 96% likelihood that it will miss entirely. Scientists
stress that this is still considered a low-risk scenario.
More refined analyses suggest:
- An ~80%
likelihood that future observations will reduce the impact probability
to almost zero
- A small
~5% chance that the impact probability could increase to over 30%
once more data is collected
New tracking opportunities using the James Webb Space
Telescope in early 2026 are expected to significantly narrow down the
asteroid’s exact path.
If 2024 YR4 were to impact the Moon, simulations indicate it
could create a 0.5–1 km-wide crater, sending tons of debris into
space. Such debris could:
- Pose
risks to orbiting satellites
- Potentially
trigger spectacular meteor displays visible from Earth
Agencies Track 2024 YR4 Closely as Mitigation Ideas Surface
International space agencies are now closely monitoring the
asteroid’s trajectory. Current infrared measurements suggest YR4 is 53 to 67
meters in diameter—large enough to cause significant effects if it struck
the Moon.
Since Earth faces no danger, discussions are focused
solely on lunar protection and satellite safety. Some early—purely
theoretical—concepts being explored include:
- Sending
a deflection spacecraft to alter the asteroid’s path
- Using
a nearby nuclear detonation as a last-resort deflection tactic
Scientists emphasize that these ideas remain speculative,
and no action will be taken until much more precise data is collected.
For now, the priority is continued monitoring and refining YR4’s orbital
calculations.
#Asteroid2024YR4 #SpaceSafety #NASA #ESA #Astronomy
#MoonImpact #SpaceNews #JamesWebb #AsteroidTracking #SpaceScience #EarthSafe
#LunarRisk
